VCU polls show Biden, Warner up by 50%+ in Va.

Democratic leaders have advantage in Central Va., NoVa and Tidewater

Published September 15, 2020 by Sydney Lake

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Mark Warner are both ahead of their opponents by double-digit margins, according to a statewide poll conducted from Aug. 28 to Sept. 7 by the Center for Public Policy at the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University.

Biden (53%) is polling ahead of Republican incumbent Donald Trump (39%) by 14 points and Warner (55%) is polling ahead of Republican Daniel Gade (38%) by 17 points. VCU’s July poll also showed Biden ahead in July at 50%. A Roanoke College poll conducted Aug. 9 through Aug. 22 also showed Biden at 53% with Trump at 39%.

Biden has large leads in south Central Virginia (65%-22%), Northern Virginia (59%-32%) and Tidewater (56%-33%), while Trump has large leads over Biden in the western (63%-36%) and northwestern (58%-36%) regions of Virginia. The U.S. Senate race followed the same trend regionally as the presidential race. 

In terms of gender, women were more likely to prefer Biden over Trump by 22%, and men prefer Biden over Trump by only 5%. This is a shift, however, from a poll released by the Wilder School in July that showed that men were more likely to say they would vote for Trump. The U.S. Senate race followed the same trend in terms of gender as the presidential race. 

Among independents, Biden leads by 8% and Warner leads by 16%.

The poll also provided insight on Virginian’s opinions about vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris and mail-in voting.

“The VP choice by Biden doesn’t appear to have significant influence on any group,” former Gov. L. Douglas Wilder said in a statement. “I think the Biden camp needs do more connecting, particularly with minority communities.”

A telephone survey of 804 adults living in Virginia showed that 70% of Virginians say the election of Harris for vice president will have no impact on their decision to vote for Biden. Only half of the respondents said they are very or somewhat confident that mail-in votes will be accurately cast and counted. Republicans were more likely to be skeptical at 67%, while 68% of Democrats were more likely to trust the process.

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