Biden, Warner leading in latest Va. poll

Recent poll conducted by Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University

Published September 24, 2020 by Sydney Lake

Democratic presidential challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden leads incumbent President Donald Trump by 5 points in Virginia, according to a poll released Thursday by the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University.

U.S. Sen. Mark Warner, the Democratic incumbent, is also ahead of Republican opponent Daniel Gade by 13 points among likely Virginia voters at 52% to 41%. This differs from Warner’s defeat of Republican Ed Gillespie in 2014, when he won by just more than 1%. Gade has a slight lead among men and white voters and a significant lead among non-college-educated voters, according to polling results. 

“These results demonstrate Virginia’s continued shift toward Democratic candidates statewide, which has been ongoing since the 2008 presidential election,” according to polling results published by the researchers.

Biden is leading with 48% among likely Virginia voters (with 43% for Trump 2% supporting another candidate and 7% undecided) and has a 27-point advantage over Trump among women (61% to 34%) , based on 796 interviews of registered Virginia voters who have voted in at least two general elections in the last four years. The gap becomes larger when looking at most enthusiastic likely voters — 51% say they will vote for Biden, while 43% say they will vote for Trump.

“Enthusiasm is a key to Biden’s lead and will be a key to turnout on Election Day,” Wason Center Research Director Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo said in a statement. “We saw an enthusiasm gap of 6 points between Democrats and Republicans in this survey.”

Polling results also show voter opinions regarding the proposed constitutional amendment to establish a redistricting commission and the job Trump is doing as president. Nearly half of voters support the redistricting commission establishment. 

“Considering that the Democratic Party of Virginia opposes this amendment, there seems to be a real disconnect with voters at the grassroots about reforming the way legislative districts are drawn,” Bromley-Trujillo said in a statement.

More than three-fourths of voters strongly disapprove of the direction the country is heading and 56% disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president. Gov. Ralph Northam’s approval rating remains at 53%, while 47% of people polls disapprove of the direction the commonwealth is going.

Poll results are based on 796 interviews of registered Virginia voters, including 163 on landline and 693 on cell phones, conducted from Sept. 9 through Sept. 21. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.9% at the 95% level of confidence, which means that if 50% of respondents indicate a topline view on an issue, the surveyors were 95% confident that the population’s view on that issue is somewhere between 46.4% and 53.6%. Live calling was conducted by trained interviewers with the Wason Center for Public Policy Survey Research Lab.

Subscribe to Virginia Business.

Get our daily e-newsletter.