New residents beginning to make their mark

by Heather B. Hayes
for Virginia Business
Novermber 2006

In the six years since George Allen was elected to the U.S. Senate, more than 500,000 new residents have moved into Virginia. That 7 percent increase in the state’s population — many of them Hispanic and Asian immigrants — could be a deciding factor in whether Allen hangs on to his Senate seat, say political analysts.

Allen’s campaign problems — including the "macaca" gaffe, questions about his sensitivity to minorities and his support for President Bush on the war in Iraq — enabled Democrat Jim Webb to overcome a 16-percentage-point deficit and make the race competitive by early October. "This certainly has not been the kind of introduction Allen would have liked to have made with these newcomers," says Robert Holsworth, political analyst and dean of the College of Humanities and Sciences at Virginia Commonwealth University.

These new Virginians were not around when Allen built his political reputation as a popular governor in the mid-1990s. "The polls show that there is a solid base of support for Allen among people who have known him for a long time," says Holsworth. "His anxiety and concern is about how all his problems and the various issues are going to harm him with the new Virginians — and justifiably so."

Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, agrees that Allen has lost significant support in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads in large part because of the influx of new residents. But the senator continues to have a strong base of longtime supporters, says Sabato. Even with the senator’s campaign problems, "it’s entirely possible that in the rural areas, Allen will get even more support," speculates Sabato.

Virginia’s changing population is making its politics less predictable. Suburban areas that once favored Republican candidates are now voting for Democrats. Holsworth notes that Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, a Democrat and former Richmond mayor, got more votes in many fast-growing suburban areas during his 2005 election than did former Democratic Gov. Mark R. Warner in 2001. Warner won Fairfax County by 26,000 votes; Kaine won by 60,000. Warner lost Prince William County, Loudoun County, Virginia Beach and Chesapeake; Kaine won all four.

Sabato predicts that Allen will win his Senate race but adds that his "disastrous campaign" has destroyed his chances for becoming a Republican presidential nominee in 2008. (Warner ended his own presidential campaign in early October, saying he wanted to spend more time with his family.) The closeness of the Senate race, coupled with Kaine’s win last year, proves that Virginia is no longer a bona fide red state, Sabato says. "It is gradually turning purple, a mix of red and blue. If Democrats put up solid, serious candidates, they’re going to be competitive."